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Just your average joe, with an unhealthy obsession with politics and news.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Morning Post Bush Still Looking Soild

The Horserace Blog
Posting must be light this morning, so I am going to be lazy and refer you to another good post by the Horsesrace Blog. Basically, Jay looks again at where the candidates have been, where they are today, and where they are going to determine the status of the race. The round up is that Kerry will be in Ohio but in weak to moderate counties that should counted in the blue column. He also points out that Edwards was in Maryland this week. That does strike me as illuminating. For a Vice-Presidential canidate to go to Maryland at this point is like Cheney going to Mississippi . Bush will be in St Petersburg today an area that went for Gore as well as the city where the city paper gave their endorsement to Kerry this week. Then off to swing area/ base areas of of Florida where Bush won by about 8% in that congressional district. Bush then this week goes to areas of Minnesota ,Wisconsin and to areas of Iowa where Gore won by healthy margins. A the end of the week The POTUS ends in the heavy democratic area of Phillly. What amazes me is that Ohio doesn't appear to be on the list. Jay is aware of at leat no travel plans or where Kerry will be at past Wednesday.
As someone who has worked in campaigns, you can bet this movement is not being dictated by the polls that we the great unwashed see but by the campaign internal polls. They are generally more accurate in my experience. The fact that Bush is not doing a stop over in Ohio this week still worrys me but you can't be in all places at one time. What also strikes me if true is the lack of an schedule for Kerry past public Wednesday. Again Jay might not have been able to find that out. But if this is the case it strikes me as pretty incompetent for the Kerry campaign. Big events don't go off well just by themselves. The organizing of volunteers, logisitcs, and getting a crowd there take time. We have already seen that some of their events have gone badly probally for lack of organization. Anyway sorry about the my more than horrible grammer this morning. but work calls.

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