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Location: Ruston, Louisiana, United States

Just your average joe, with an unhealthy obsession with politics and news.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Louisiana State Roundup

Final post, for a while before I go to the big city to do my part. Louisiana is about as safe as Wyoming to stay in the Bush red state side. Turnout has been reported high among republican groups in early voting. I expect a nice increase in the popular vote for Bush in this state. The real deal in this state is the Senate race. During the day go to live updates at www.sobekpundit.blogspot.com. He is liveblogging LA for the command post. Also for news rumors and latest la gossip go www. politicsla.com and go to the forum section.
In Louisiana there are no party primarys. Top two vote getters get it, regardless of parties. Get over 50% you win without the need of a runnoff. The Players: Republican David Vitter(Currently sitting congressman), Dem Chris John(Currently sitting Dem Congressman), Dem John Kennedy(Current state Treasuer), Dem Morrell (New orleans political guy). In a surprise this year the Louisiana Republican party didnt establish a circular firing squad and shoot themselves. Vitter is the lone Republican. The party seems to be united. In the other surprise, Chris John, the Demo Establishment favorite) has ran one of the most horrible campaigns that I can remember, despite having the outgoing Senator and current Dem Senator's endorsement. Kennedy has ran a good campaign and has made serious inroads into Johns black support. In fact black congressman ,William Jefferson, has endorsed Kennedy. I do expect John to receive the bulk of Dem voters though despite a recent poll showing Kennedy inching ahead of him. Big news today: Rain Rain Rain for a good part of the day in Northwest Louisiana. This spells bad news for the the Dems. In North Louisiana african american turnout is paramount for success for Democrats. There has been no great ethuasim for this Presidental race or particually the Senate race among African Americans. This might be able to put Vitter over that magical 50%.
In Northeast Louisiana former democrat now republican Rodney Alexander should come out on top. The same for Republican Jindal who is running to replace Vitter in his House race. The races to watch will be who is going to make the runoff in retiring Rep Tauzin's district. Currently his son who is running is doing quite well. Also who will be the top two vote getters in the race to replace Chris John. Republicans are ensured of making one of the top spots in either.
In looking at the results today and for those political gurus go to the sites above. Also go to the Louisiana Secretary of State's web site. Look for these things. Turn out in Orleans Parish. Orleans is very democractic. It has as much chance of swinging Republican as I do becoming Pope tomorrow. Compare the turnout there to the neighboring Republican Parishes such as Jefferson and St Tammeny. If turnout is low low in Orleans and high in the neighboring Parishes Vitter has a good chance for over 50. Go to Lafayette Parish next. Chris John represents this Parish in his congressional district. What is interesting is that its a big Republican Parish and is the major metro center for that area.. If John is doing bad here he might not even make second. Really I think looking at two Parishes in particular can show the likely outcome. Calcasieu parish is a good barometer for the entire state. Lake Charles is the major metro area here also represented by Chris John. This Parish has a mixture of all the political elements that make up the soup of LA politics. If Vitter is doing well here he prob gets over 50%. Then go look at the stats for Caddo PArish in northwest La. Caddo ,though in conservative Northwest Louisiana, is generally a Democrat Parish, Bush and Gore were tight up here four years ago. If it looks like a Vitter win here in terms of real number of votes compared to all Dems its over folks in my opinion and Vitter should get over 50. Anyway sorry for the misspellings but in a rush to get the vote out. Will try to give a update during the day.

6 Comments:

Blogger MaxedOutMama said...

Vitter's in! LA did good! Jay did even better!

November 3, 2004 at 1:01 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

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November 4, 2004 at 8:25 AM  
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