bayouranter

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Location: Ruston, Louisiana, United States

Just your average joe, with an unhealthy obsession with politics and news.

Saturday, November 06, 2004

The Horserace Blog Jay says Goodbye

The Horserace Blog
Just wanted to link his site one final time. Jay is now ending his blogging on the Horserace Blog. I have to admit his blog gave me much comfort in the weeks heading up to the election. Better yet, it was right on the money. I am sure he will do great in his future endeavors. He went to from starting a small blog to becoming a national blogging sensation from the looks of places where he was quoted. Good luck Jay. Click above for Jays good bye.

Democratic Underground Forums - AFP: Marines turn to God ahead of anticipated Fallujah battle

Democratic Underground Forums - AFP: Marines turn to God ahead of anticipated Fallujah battle
Well, what are the loons doing at the Democratic Underground besides trying to come up with 130,000 votes and spinning tales of republican "democrat vote stealing" voting machines. Well making fun and sitting in disbelief that young Americans are praying and making peace with God before entering Fallujah. Can you imagine the scene as young men and woman are about to enter battle attending services and mass. It certantly will be on my mind tomorrow. But as one of the peanut gallery said over there "Its Creepy", well let our prayers be with them tonight.

Telegraph | Opinion | If Karl Rove would talk to Mr Howard, this is what he'd say

Telegraph | Opinion | If Karl Rove would talk to Mr Howard, this is what he'd say
The Telegraph continues a central theme apparent in many UK papers. That theme is could a Rove type approach work for the conservatives in the UK, this opinion piece points out the structural differences a Rove would have to deal with:

To some extent, the question reflects a false premise. As John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge argue in their magnificent exploration of US conservatism, The Right Nation: "If you were to install Karl Rove in the Conservative Party's headquarters in London and tell him to re-create an American-style conservative movement, he would not know where to begin." There is, for a start, no conservative infrastructure of politicised churches, wealthy think tanks and Right-wing talk radio in this country. Nor is there a rugged tradition of God-fearing individualism, in which love of nation is matched only by disdain for big government. Micklethwait and Wooldridge aptly describe Margaret Thatcher as "an aberration - an American conservative who happened to be born in Grantham rather than Houston".

However I argue among many factors Bush win was a win for straight talk to the American people. This in oppostion to what was perceived ,and I think to be true, Kerry's poll driven and scare tactics screed. It seems the UK might wish the same. The piece concludes by saying:

The three issues that mattered most to American voters last week were "moral values", the economy and employment, and terrorism. Opinion polls in this country ascribe comparable significance to pensions, the NHS, immigration, and law and order. There is no British "moral majority" in the sense that Americans mean. Yet it is not hard to envisage the growth of a new conservative base in this country: anxious about saving for old age; supportive of the NHS, but fed up with its creaking structures; insistent upon a new asylum and immigration system based on fairness rather than rhetoric; and - as our ICM poll today shows is already the case - infuriated by the prevalence of violent crime. One might argue, indeed, that such a base already exists. The question is which party, in the years ahead, will claim it as its own.


Guardian Unlimited | US elections 2004 | The fearful lesson from America

Guardian Unlimited | US elections 2004 | The fearful lesson from America:
The Guardian of course has a glowing review of what happened in the former colonies. Basically it warns the tories not to be like Rove but of interest is how they think labor will respond:

"expect much of Britain's political contest to revolve around the politics of fear. The result of the American election makes that even more certain. New Labour will be more concerned than ever to cover the security flank so that issues like crime and asylum cannot be captured by the Conservatives. "

Uk readers if your here from blogexplosion feel free to comment

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Tories must forget cultural elite to win

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Tories must forget cultural elite to win
Will Tories learn from the lessons of the Republican victory. It will be of interest if any repub poltico types go over to help the Conservatives. This is not without precedent. Remember, shortly after Clinton was elected Carville went to help Labor with their campaign.

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Decomposing corpse TV is the latest betrayal of the dead

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Decomposing corpse TV is the latest betrayal of the dead
You think TV here has gone to new lows look what one British channel has up its sleeve. Ukk. Maybe the Guardian should pay more attention to matters closer to home.

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Bushwhacked: How Dubya won America

Scotsman.com News - Opinion - Bushwhacked: How Dubya won America
Nice roundup for the Scots In the THE SCOTSMAN. The Scotsman is one of my favorite UK papers since generally there writers are factual and have a bit of humor.

Telegraph | Opinion | Believe it or not, it wasn't just rednecks who voted for Bush

Telegraph | Opinion | Believe it or not, it wasn't just rednecks who voted for Bush
First of several articles that I will be posting from UK Sunday papers this evening. Since it appears UK elections are on the horizon, I will attempt to have some focus on that as a regular feature.

Defiant Fox Hunters Open Season That Could Be Britain's Last if Government Bans Sport - from TBO.com

Defiant Fox Hunters Open Season That Could Be Britain's Last if Government Bans Sport - from TBO.com
This is a typical example of the "Nanny State" that we so hope to avoid. I used to think the NRA was extreme. However, every time I hear about types of hunting being banned in other countries the NRA looks to be the rational force to protect gunowners and hunters.

Open Letter To The Democratic Party: How You Could Have Had My Vote

Open Letter To The Democratic Party: How You Could Have Had My Vote
Last post of the day on this topic but this is a must read. I have always said that the Kerry campaign were not in control of their own message. Instead the air americas and the Michael Moore's of the world took over. This is one of the votes Kerry might have gotten but well read her post.

BUSH OR BUST Woman In Louisiana Strips To Vote Bush

BUSH OR BUST#continue
And you thought it was just the swing staters that had all the fun.

How Did the Enlightened Voters React On The West Coast After The Election

Photos from the rally in SF on November 3, 2004
Pictures from the most blue section of the country on Nov 3rd.

Power Line: Tire Slashing Update(Oh Say It Isnt So)

Power Line: Tire Slashing Update
For those with short attention spans, and were on the lookout for mass roundups of blacks, gays, and progressives by Chairman Rove on election day you might have missed the story of those republican vans that were "disabled" in Wisconsin. Well guess who has been arrested. Tip of the cap to Powerline

Telegraph | Opinion | Can the Tories figure out how Bush won again?

Telegraph | Opinion | Can the Tories figure out how Bush won again?
Interesting article from the UK Telegraph. I am curious how this election as well as Howards will influence the UK election. As a Republican I believe we are naturally allied with the conservatives in the Uk. However, I have to admit I am conflicted in this race. It appears if Blair won he would probally step down after two years. I would like to the final horse of the international trifecta to come in and show Europe what real moral courage is about.

Bush Relatives for Kerry

Bush Relatives for Kerry
Guess these Bush relations won't be getting an invite for Thanksgiving dinner.

Friday, November 05, 2004

Redstate || Who Is Targeted In 2006

Redstate || Collaborative Republicanism for the Masses
A more closer look at 2006 and the Senate Race. Looking at percentage of votes the indivduals received in the past as well as comparison to Bush or Gore depending on the party. Also looks at factors such as retirement. For those bloggers from Blogexplosion that kept making comments where all these political blogs were going to go. Where Volia.

UPDATE ON LOUISIANA RACES

Tonight or tomorrow I intend to give you an update on the two Louisiana races that in runoffs. its a typical democrat and republican match up in both races. One seat located in south central and south western Louisiana is currently held by Dem Chris John who on Tuesday lost his run for the Senate. The other race is located deep in cajun country and is currently being held by retiring republican Billy Tauzin. His son is trying to replace him. Stay tuned.

Guardian Unlimited | US elections 2004 | Woke up this mornin', got the election blues

Guardian Unlimited US elections 2004 Woke up this mornin', got the election blues
One last piece from the our favorite newspaper The Guardian. An opinion piece how for one gleaming moment before the UK went to bed there was hope. Blah, Blah Blah.

POLIT BLOG FOR 06 AND 08

GOP Strategery
For those who can't break the habit of campaign excitement here is a blog to keep a lookout on. I will probally link it myself. Hattip to polipundit.

MaxedOutMama On What The Dems Don't Get.

MaxedOutMama
Maxed out Mamma has an excellent post on how the Dems don't get what happened. I share her assessement that one the main reasons is that the elites must believe "flyover" Americans are a bunch of idiots. THe most telling line is she states that:

"... it somehow became McAuliffe gospel that Bush was an illegitimate president who had stolen the presidency and subverted the Supreme Court. Do you know what all this looks like to the people I work with, shop with, and talk with? They think the national Democratic leadership has gone insane. They think their local Democratic politicians are just fine. Unfortunately, if this sort of rhetoric continues their local Democratic politicians are going to switch parties."


"Some of my neighbors may have high school educations, but they read newspapers on the internet. The days when an article or editorial written in the New York Times denigrating their religious beliefs (which don't include killing gay people, by the way, or shunning them, or excluding them from their churches) would not be read and understood in the small town where I live are OVER. Long past. Ancient history. If the Democratic party decides in the wake of the 2004 election that it must turn its despair upon religious believers, it is doomed as a national party."


Amen to that. Go take a read her insight is right on.

Instapundit.com -Links to the Left Wing Blogs reaction to Tuesday

Instapundit.com -As Instantpundit states a very diverse reaction from the lefts leading bloggers. Note: I notice he has Andrew Sullivan on that list. Come back Andrew to the fold. We will all welcome you back.

SobekPundit List of Senators Up For Reelection in 2006

SobekPundit
The most endangered on this list is Santorium from Penn. Vwry big conservative. However the Gop GOTV operation will stay in place for him I feel. Also lets see if Sen Spector has the gratitude to help him out in significant ways since Santorium likely convinced enough conservatives to vote for the senior senator to help him survive his primary. More analysis later. Tip to Sobekpundit

The Horserace Blog(Analysis of Bush and the Republicans

The Horserace Blog
Part II of his analysis. Also is useful that he points out Bush campaign mistakes that often get missed in the post election euphoria.

Thursday, November 04, 2004

NewsMax.com: Liners Archive MORE LATE NIGHT HUMOR

NewsMax.com: Liners Archive

David Letterman's Top Ten List: John Kerry Excuses

David Letterman's Top Ten List: John Kerry Excuses

Kuwaitis celebrate Bush victory

Kuwaitis celebrate Bush victory
At least gratitude exist somewhere.

Mirror.co.uk - GOD HELP AMERICA

Mirror.co.uk - GOD HELP AMERICA
More reasonable and thoughtful commentary from the UK. NOT!

The Horserace Blog Part One Of The Wrapup

The Horserace Blog
A great post by Jay here. I think this guy is amother winner of the 2004 race. He has a bright future in the political consulting game. Here Jay examines where the demos went wrong. I differ with Jay on two points.First, I am not so sure that McAuliffe will still have his job. I thought some of his comments during the election were beyond belief. Second, I believe that the Dems did not necessarly benifit from a short primary season. I know this an artice of faith in both parties. However, the testing of candidates on the trail often makes them better candidates in the general. For an example of this, I think of how McCain's challenge to Bush prepared the Bush campaign for a very tough battle against Gore. Also, Bush was getting bad press every day the primaries were continuing. Does everyone remember how dismal his ratings were at the end of January and February?The Bush image was getting slaughtered largely with the help of the 24 hour cable news media.

ELECTION ROUNDUP

Today will be posting various articles and thoughts on the election experience. On a personal note, election night was a wild ride trying to get out the Viteer vote as well as being on call for any legal problems. In fact, at one point I was on the way out of state to assist in legal challenges but was called back after it appeared that we had the elction in the bag. More soon.

Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Louisiana State Roundup

Final post, for a while before I go to the big city to do my part. Louisiana is about as safe as Wyoming to stay in the Bush red state side. Turnout has been reported high among republican groups in early voting. I expect a nice increase in the popular vote for Bush in this state. The real deal in this state is the Senate race. During the day go to live updates at www.sobekpundit.blogspot.com. He is liveblogging LA for the command post. Also for news rumors and latest la gossip go www. politicsla.com and go to the forum section.
In Louisiana there are no party primarys. Top two vote getters get it, regardless of parties. Get over 50% you win without the need of a runnoff. The Players: Republican David Vitter(Currently sitting congressman), Dem Chris John(Currently sitting Dem Congressman), Dem John Kennedy(Current state Treasuer), Dem Morrell (New orleans political guy). In a surprise this year the Louisiana Republican party didnt establish a circular firing squad and shoot themselves. Vitter is the lone Republican. The party seems to be united. In the other surprise, Chris John, the Demo Establishment favorite) has ran one of the most horrible campaigns that I can remember, despite having the outgoing Senator and current Dem Senator's endorsement. Kennedy has ran a good campaign and has made serious inroads into Johns black support. In fact black congressman ,William Jefferson, has endorsed Kennedy. I do expect John to receive the bulk of Dem voters though despite a recent poll showing Kennedy inching ahead of him. Big news today: Rain Rain Rain for a good part of the day in Northwest Louisiana. This spells bad news for the the Dems. In North Louisiana african american turnout is paramount for success for Democrats. There has been no great ethuasim for this Presidental race or particually the Senate race among African Americans. This might be able to put Vitter over that magical 50%.
In Northeast Louisiana former democrat now republican Rodney Alexander should come out on top. The same for Republican Jindal who is running to replace Vitter in his House race. The races to watch will be who is going to make the runoff in retiring Rep Tauzin's district. Currently his son who is running is doing quite well. Also who will be the top two vote getters in the race to replace Chris John. Republicans are ensured of making one of the top spots in either.
In looking at the results today and for those political gurus go to the sites above. Also go to the Louisiana Secretary of State's web site. Look for these things. Turn out in Orleans Parish. Orleans is very democractic. It has as much chance of swinging Republican as I do becoming Pope tomorrow. Compare the turnout there to the neighboring Republican Parishes such as Jefferson and St Tammeny. If turnout is low low in Orleans and high in the neighboring Parishes Vitter has a good chance for over 50. Go to Lafayette Parish next. Chris John represents this Parish in his congressional district. What is interesting is that its a big Republican Parish and is the major metro center for that area.. If John is doing bad here he might not even make second. Really I think looking at two Parishes in particular can show the likely outcome. Calcasieu parish is a good barometer for the entire state. Lake Charles is the major metro area here also represented by Chris John. This Parish has a mixture of all the political elements that make up the soup of LA politics. If Vitter is doing well here he prob gets over 50%. Then go look at the stats for Caddo PArish in northwest La. Caddo ,though in conservative Northwest Louisiana, is generally a Democrat Parish, Bush and Gore were tight up here four years ago. If it looks like a Vitter win here in terms of real number of votes compared to all Dems its over folks in my opinion and Vitter should get over 50. Anyway sorry for the misspellings but in a rush to get the vote out. Will try to give a update during the day.

New York Post Online Edition: seven(FREE PORN FOR VOTING)

New York Post Online Edition: seven
For those NYC voter ,porn star and producer Seymore Butts is giving away porn dvds to those who show proof of voting. Plus he is being bi partasian on the give aways. click above for details and pick up location. Hat tip to wonkette.

MegaPundit � PRESIDENT WITH SLIM LEAD IN OHIO(ACTUAL VOTES)

MegaPundit � PRESIDENT WITH SLIM LEAD IN OHIO
President Bush currently has a 12,000 point lead in Ohio. Thank you MegaPundit. Def a site to watch today.

Daschle v. Thune: Live Report From Courtroom

Daschle v. Thune: Live Report From Courtroom
This report is hilarious. Live blogging from the court room in the famed Daschle v Thune case. Daschle has alot of moxie to sue before voting even starts. As a side note this blogger has alot of moxie live blogging from a federal courtroom hehehe. As a lawyer I still get nervous when I am in a federal court room. Its a must read and shows the desperation of Daschle.

Monitors decry pro-Kerry schedule - The Washington Times: World - November 02, 2004

Monitors decry pro-Kerry schedule - The Washington Times: World - November 02, 2004
What are those international vote monitors doing and thinking this election day. You might be surprised by their views.

ELECTION DAY

Well it's finally here. Go forth and vote. Then if you can volunteer. If you are working today like 99% of you are persuade your co-workers call your friends. Remember the rule is if they are in line at the the time of the closing of the polls they will be able to vote. Some blogging this morning then off to my volunteer duties.

Monday, November 01, 2004

An Englishman's Castle: Advice for Americans

An Englishman's Castle: Advice for Americans
Its very easy to be cynical about this election and our place in the world. But An Englishman's Castle blog has done us a service. He quotes Kipling to give us encouragement in our role in Iraq. Here Kipling is encouraging our intervention in 1899 in the Philippines. We often forget that with power comes great responsibilty. The country that gave us that us many of those lessons and traditions ,England, still abides by that principle. So does our sister in heritage Australia. I hope we don't repudiate it tomorrow. Click above and take time to read it and remember it when going to vote.

The Horserace Blog(Jay Challenges The Incumbent Rule And Gives Predictions)

The Horserace Blog
Jay has his final post for the night on his blog giving his predictions as well as a great rebuttal to the so called incumbent rule. In addressing what the mystery poller and others talking heads pontificate , Jay states:
What the mystery pollster (and others) is trying to do is essentially the same as what IR people try to do. He is taking a series of observations and developing an average for how undecideds break to the challenger. This is what "the incumbent rule" is driving at. His problem is that he has a small number of observations, only 8 presidential elections since 1956 where there is a challenger v. incumbent (some have tried to broaden the field to look at all elections and derive a rule from that, but I think that is foolish -- presidential elections are fundamentally different from an election for dog catcher or US Senator). It is really, really, really hard to make a rule from eight observations. And, given that 1976 and 1984 stand out as exceptions (undecideds broke evenly at the end of both campaigns) -- when I say "hard," I actually mean impossible.

Furthermore, 1992 itself is quite incommensurable to the other the elections in the sample. Perot and Bush picked up the last minute deciders -- Clinton actually lost ground among them. A good social scientist would probably would exclude 1992 from his analysis because it is so uncharacteristic in unrelated ways. So, that would be 2 exceptions out of 7. And, if you go back to 1948, for which there is a Gallup survey, you'll see that Truman picked up the undecideds, too. So, that would be 3 exceptions out of 8.

What kind of rule is that? You could easily flip a coin eight times and get heads five times.


People often foget the examples of Ford and more recently Bush one. I believe , like Matthew Dowd, that independents will split. Click above and enjoy.





The American Enterprise: The Plains vs. The Atlantic

The American Enterprise: The Plains vs. The Atlantic
This is a great article reviewing David Brooks piece on Blue America(Kerry) and Red America(Bush). He takes somes jabs at it but the review is excellent. For those Visitors from across the pond it might be worth a read. It explains ,contrary to what you might have heard, that the reds(Bush supporters) are not a bunch of naive ,manipulated, ignorant folk. Enjoy.

Times Online - World(UK TIMES ON ELECTION DAY)

Times Online - World
The first two paragraphs are pretty funny. But this is a good read on how a responsible UK paper is presenting the election.

LBC(Liberal Pro Kerry station out of London Talking about the Election)

LBC
Have some fun here. Love listening to these European radio stations. He is inviting comments through phone or email.

Stand in the Trenches: The Rally today in Wisconsin

Stand in the Trenches: The Rally today
Nice report from woman on the ground in Wisconsin about comparing the the two respective rallys. Evidentally, Bush had 11,000 and Kerry had only hundreds with Bon Jovi there. Hell, I don't like his politics but I might have shown up even to listen to him sing if he did. Bodes well for Bush.

South Dakota Politics and Elections | In tie, candidates would pick Bush

South Dakota Politics and Elections In tie, candidates would pick Bush
Interesting article here on the other major Federal race in South Dakota-The House Race. Seems the Democrat candidate and current Representative committed to vote for Bush if the electoral college ended in a tie. Lets hope it doesn't come down to that. Better yet, South Dakota elect the Republican candidate.

The Horserace Blog(Jay Brings Back Sanity To the Blogsphere)

The Horserace Blog
Nice post and advice. But no way can I turn off cable news too addicted.

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online(HAWAII)

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
Kerry Spot with more good news on Hawaii and their lovely enticing four electoral votes.

Help needed

By the way if anyone has had the same problem I am having on this blog let me know. For some reason my posts are showing up halfway down the page. I haven't changed my template and can't figure it out. Thanks.

MaxedOutMama: Democracy, Freedom, Patriotism & Hope

MaxedOutMama: Democracy, Freedom, Patriotism & Hope
Sometimes a bloggers comments say it all. Take time out out of all the poll predictions and turnout numbers and take a look.

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online(Thoughts On Polls and Blog Panic)

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
Its been an experience to watch how the blogsphere reacts to the slightest hints of bad news while ignoring any good news. What has everyone in a tizzy , in the last hour, is the article wrote on the Kerry spot on NRO as well as the fox poll numbers. Pleaseeee! Kerry Spot reported that he had heard that internal poll numbers showed a bad Sunday night in Ohio. Can't imagine why. Everyone with kids was trick or treating going to haunted houses, or Church carnivals. I was at one last night and it was packed. Besides polling on another non religious holiday like the day of love(Feb 14), I can't imagine a worst night. Also, I expect that Republican voters are very likely to have something called caller id. It doesn't take long for people who have been inudated with automated and volunteer phone calls to figure out who is on the line trying to call them for the thousand'th time. I expect the 800 number, blocked number, or some far off zip code gives it away. Just something to consider. Calm down people get out there and volunteer and encourage your friends and relatives to vote. We are in good shape go to places like freerepublic.com and look at the posts. Theeir people are emailing by the minuate from the events. One is showing huge euthuastic crowds for Bush in Wisconsin right now. Ditto every where else he is appearing.

ABC News: The Note: Bringing It Home(The Note Details The Campaign Schedules Today)

ABC News: The Note: Bringing It Home
Looks like a busy day for both canidates. Looks like Kerry and Edwards will duplicate what Gore did last year and have a early morning rally in key states by looking at where they are spending the night tonight. It appears both Bush and Cheney will end the campaigns with rallys in their respective states late tonight. Personally, I like to see Bush do the same so as to compete for election morning news coverage.

Candidates' final appeal to sway a divided electorate / BALANCE OF POWER: Daschle death match is 1 of 9 tight races with the control of Senate at stake

Candidates' final appeal to sway a divided electorate / BALANCE OF POWER: Daschle death match is 1 of 9 tight races with the control of Senate at stake
Pretty good article on the Senate races. However they don't mention Louisiana. HMM The possibilty of the first Republican senator in Louisiana since reconstruction and not a mention.

Telegraph | Opinion | Where I come from, our homes are still our castles

Telegraph | Opinion | Where I come from, our homes are still our castles
Great article to read when we hear all these English papers critical of those Bush supporting born again gun toting freaks. Hat tip to www.maxedoutmamma.blogspot.com.

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online-Bush Chief Strategist Releases Final Memo On Pre Election

The Kerry Spot on National Review Online
Even though I know this information is partisan, I believe its reasonably sound. If you need anything else to calm yourself among all these poll numbers go the horserace blog at www.jaycost.blogspot.com, or better yet volunteer your anxieties away.

PalmTree Pundit- An Hawaii Blogger First Hand Account of Cheney's Late Night Rally

PalmTree Pundit
Its interesting to see the realignment of states to the different parties. Congrats to Hawaii Repubs.

BACK FROM OUT OF TOWN LET THE COUNTDOWN BLOGGING COMMENCE

Well, after a long week out of town, its election eve. Let's commence blogging the latest events in this surreal experience we call the election system. I will be out helping the Bush Ticket as well as Senate Hopeful for a bit the next 36 hours but blogging will continue. Lets get started.

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